In a normal market economy, slow growth prevents inflation. As a result, consumer demand drops enough to keep prices from rising. Stagflation can only occur if government policies disrupt normal market functioning. The federal government manipulated its currency to spur economic growth. At the same time, it restricted supply with wage-price controls. In 2008, the Zimbabwean government printed so much money it went beyond stagflation and turned into hyperinflation.
How Does Stagflation Work?
Stagflation occurs when the government or central banks expand the money supply at the same time they constrain supply. The most common culprit is when the government prints currency. It can also occur when a central bank’s monetary policies create credit. Both increase the money supply and create inflation. At the same time, other policies slow growth. That happens, for instance, if the government increases taxes. It can also occur when the central bank raises interest rates. Both prevent companies from producing more. When conflicting expansionary and contractionary policies occur, it can slow growth while creating inflation. That’s stagflation.
Stagflation During the 1970s
Stagflation got its name during the 1973-1975 recession. There were five quarters when gross domestic product was negative. Inflation tripled in 1973, rising from 3.6% in January to 8.7% in December. It rose to a range of between 10% and 12% from February 1974 through April 1975. How did this happen? Many experts blame the 1973 oil embargo. That’s when OPEC cut its oil exports to the United States. Prices quadrupled, triggering inflation in oil. It started with a mild recession in 1970. GDP was negative for two quarters. Unemployment rose to 6.1%. President Richard Nixon was running for re-election. He wanted to boost growth without triggering inflation. On August 15, 1971, he announced three fiscal policies. They got him re-elected. They also sowed the seeds for stagflation. A video of Nixon’s speech shows the announcement of significant economic policy changes known as the Nixon Shock.
The Nixon Shock
The Nixon Shock was comprised of three actions that Nixon took. The crisis occurred when the United Kingdom tried to redeem $3 billion for gold. The United States didn’t have that much gold in its reserves at Fort Knox. So Nixon stopped redeeming dollars for gold. That sent the price of the precious metal skyrocketing and the value of the dollar plummeting which sent import prices up even more. These last two policies raised import prices, which slowed growth. Then growth slowed even more because U.S. companies couldn’t raise prices to remain profitable. Since they couldn’t lower wages either, the only way to reduce costs was to lay off workers. That increased unemployment. Unemployment reduces consumer demand and slows economic growth. In other words, Nixon’s three attempts to boost growth and control inflation had the opposite effect.
Stop-Go Monetary Policy
The Federal Reserve’s attempts to fight stagflation only worsened it. Between 1971 and 1978, it raised the fed funds rate to fight inflation, then lowered it to fight the recession. This “stop-go” monetary policy confused businesses. They kept prices high, even when the Fed lowered rates. That sent inflation up to 13.3% by 1979. Federal Reserve Chair Paul Volcker ended stagflation by raising the rate to 20% in 1980. But it was at a high cost. It created the 1980-1982 recession.
Could Stagflation Reoccur?
In 2011, people became concerned about stagflation again. They worried that the Fed’s expansive monetary policies, used to rescue the economy from the 2008 financial crisis, would cause inflation. At the same time, Congress approved an expansive fiscal policy. It included the economic stimulus package and record levels of deficit spending. Meanwhile, the economy was only growing 1% to 2%. People warned of the risk of stagflation if inflation worsened and the economy didn’t improve. This massive increase in global liquidity prevented deflation, a far greater risk. The Fed won’t allow inflation to go beyond its inflation target of 2% for the core inflation rate. If inflation rose above that target, the Fed would reverse course and institute constrictive monetary policy. First, the Fed no longer practices stop-go monetary policies. Instead, it commits to a consistent direction. Second, the removal of the dollar from the gold standard was a once-in-a-lifetime event. Third, the wage-price controls that constrained supply wouldn’t even be considered today.
